Weber St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	162.0
Current RPI:	162
Expected SOS:	237
Current SOS:	237
Current Record:	17-11
Expected Record:	17-11
Current Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Conf Record:	13-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-2
Current OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC RPI:	220
Expected OOC SOS:	164

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-11	162.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Weber St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	65-59	W	100%
11-17	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	N	72-80	L	0%
11-18	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	N	73-65	W	100%
11-19	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	N	64-70	L	0%
11-30	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	83-71	L	0%
12-6	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	A	83-56	L	0%
12-9	BYU (67.0)	WCC	N	74-68	L	0%
12-16	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	96-74	W	100%
12-19	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	H	72-67	W	100%
12-30	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	60-62	L	0%
1-4	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	95-55	W	100%
1-6	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	H	92-76	W	100%
1-11	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	A	74-78	W	100%
1-13	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	A	89-79	L	0%
1-18	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	80-64	W	100%
1-20	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	84-79	W	100%
1-27	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	A	70-77	W	100%
2-1	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	A	80-90	W	100%
2-3	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	A	55-87	W	100%
2-8	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	H	84-76	W	100%
2-10	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	71-66	W	100%
2-15	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	A	86-95	W	100%
2-17	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	A	73-83	W	100%
2-22	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	70-75	L	0%
2-24	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	H	62-68	L	0%
3-1	Montana (76.0)	BSky	A	75-57	L	0%
3-3	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	A	92-95	W	100%
3-8	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	N	55-80	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Weber St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Weber St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Weber St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Weber St.	BSky	26.35	26.35	60.45	60.45	5.51	5.51
Northern Colorado	BSky	6.19	6.19	64.29	64.29	1.77	1.77
Idaho St.	BSky	4.57	4.57	42.31	42.31	-0.70	-0.70
Southern Utah	BSky	4.47	4.47	39.29	39.29	-0.96	-0.96
North Dakota	BSky	4.46	4.46	32.14	32.14	-1.59	-1.59
Portland St.	BSky	4.43	4.43	60.71	60.71	0.95	0.95
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.40	4.40	14.29	14.29	-3.15	-3.15
Sacramento St.	BSky	4.38	4.38	17.86	17.86	-2.81	-2.81
Montana	BSky	2.91	2.91	76.67	76.67	1.55	1.55
Eastern Washington	BSky	2.89	2.89	54.84	54.84	0.28	0.28
Montana St.	BSky	2.85	2.85	37.93	37.93	-0.69	-0.69
Idaho	BSky	2.79	2.79	67.86	67.86	1.00	1.00
Pepperdine	WCC	1.98	1.98	16.67	16.67	-1.32	-1.32
BYU	WCC	1.96	1.96	69.70	69.70	0.77	0.77
Utah St.	MWC	1.96	1.96	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	1.94	1.94	64.29	64.29	0.55	0.55
Fresno St.	MWC	1.90	1.90	62.07	62.07	0.46	0.46
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.88	1.88	41.18	41.18	-0.33	-0.33
Bradley	MVC	1.79	1.79	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
Iona	MAAC	1.79	1.79	59.38	59.38	0.33	0.33
James Madison	CAA	1.79	1.79	30.00	30.00	-0.71	-0.71
Santa Clara	WCC	0.31	0.31	34.48	34.48	-0.10	-0.10
UNLV	MWC	0.29	0.29	60.61	60.61	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.27	0.27	14.29	14.29	-0.20	-0.20
UC Davis	BW	0.26	0.26	66.67	66.67	0.09	0.09
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.24	0.24	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Boise St.	MWC	0.23	0.23	73.33	73.33	0.11	0.11
Portland	WCC	0.23	0.23	24.14	24.14	-0.12	-0.12
Wyoming	MWC	0.23	0.23	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.22	84.85	84.85	0.16	0.16
Gonzaga	WCC	0.22	0.22	88.24	88.24	0.17	0.17
San Jose St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	10.34	10.34	-0.16	-0.16
San Diego St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
San Francisco	WCC	0.20	0.20	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.18	0.18	20.00	20.00	-0.11	-0.11
South Dakota	Sum	0.17	0.17	73.33	73.33	0.08	0.08
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.15	0.15	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Pacific	WCC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	12.50	12.50	-0.10	-0.10
Arizona St.	P12	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.12	0.12	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Chicago St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	3.33	3.33	-0.08	-0.08
Cal Poly	BW	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.09	0.09	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.05	0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00